Alternative Futures Forecast: Familial Politics and Election Result Reactions

Methodology Note: Alternative Futures Forecasts 13-16

X-Axis number of loved ones with opposing politics with Y-Axis will to fight if your party loses

To challenge the flaws in conventional forecasting methods, Girl Security’s forecasts are based on drivers whose intersections fail to receive mainstream attention. The drivers themselves are derived from trends that Girl Security’s communities identify as being of special concern to them, rather than from trends based on traditional economic and societal indicators. For more on the systemic data gaps and flawed assumptions embedded in conventional futures forecasting that our approach seeks to mitigate, please see the introduction to Girl Security’s Alternative Futures Forecasts.

Key Findings:

• Security workforces, from local law enforcement to workplace security, might consider prioritizing their planning resources on preventing violence in public spaces where mixed political affiliations are likely, as per Scenario 16. By anticipating outbursts of violence in such places, they are more likely to identify early detection and mitigation opportunities.
• As noted in Alternative Futures Forecasts 09-12, the vast majority of voters (82%) believe their own ballot will be counted accurately. The majority of people of every party trust elections in their own state. Thus, part of the solution to preventing outbreaks of post-election violence lies in persuading voters of the losing candidates that the votes for the winner were legitimate and represent the will of their family members, neighbors, close friends, and colleagues.
• The mixed picture of where and how politics features in family life provides food for thought for creating cross-party communities and safe spaces, particularly online, for sharing views. Grassroots efforts to re-humanize the “other party” may have more widespread and enduring impact than a candidate or two advocating for bi-partisanship.
• As a followup to the above, beginning to address mutual respect for political views as a matter of ethics and civics education could decrease the level of hostility for future generations even if party politics continue to become more polarized. Studies show (as noted in AFF 09-12) that the negative, intolerant and hostile behaviors of leaders have disproportionate impact on shaping broader constituent beliefs and behaviors. One method of rebalancing that disproportion is for families to model more constructive ideals of citizenship, given their influence is more enduring. For more ideas, see Conversations at the Dinner Table.
• Among the most impactful findings in the research for this Alternative Futures Forecast was the statement echoed by parents with regard to the possibility of seeing their children marry “into the other political party.” The deep respect most parents demonstrated for the independence and autonomy of their own children may hold the key to tamping down partisan hostility if Americans consider that every citizen should have that right and autonomy, no matter whose child they are.

These are the key findings from the results of Girl Security’s third Alternative Futures Forecast. Forecasts 09-12 project futures that would result from the intersection of two trends that are of pressing concern to our community. These trends are expressed in the chart below as they currently exist, but as per the Alternative Futures Forecast method, turned into drivers that describe them in both positive and negative directions to create four distinct possible futures depending on whether the current trends hold or change in any number of ways.

TREND: Party Officials and Candidates Openly Calling for Fighting Election Losses	TREND: Familial Politics Growing Complicated
Y Axis: degree of willingness to fight the winning party if it is not your own	X Axis: number of your friends & family who don’t share your politics
George Lang, a state senator for Ohio when introducing GOP VP candidate J.D. Vance warned the audience about the upcoming Presidential elections, “I’m afraid if we lose this one, it’s going to take a civil war to save the country, and it will be saved.”	A Pew survey conducted last year identified the top concerns of parents about their children. Mental health (35%) ranked highest. Parents identified their priorities for the future character of their children, as well, with 94% saying being honest and ethical were extremely or very important, while factors such as sharing the same religious beliefs (35%) or political beliefs (16%) we significantly lower.
In early 2024, GOP nominee Donald Trump began raising doubts once a day about the fairness of the November elections, according to the New York Times. He refused to reject violence as an outcome when Time magazine asked about the possibility, saying, “If we don’t win, you know, it depends. It always depends on the fairness of an election.”	According to 2020 Voter Study Group research, the rate of “opposite-party marriages,” is very small in America at only 3%. In fact, opposite-party marriages make up only 6% of all marriages according to their report.
The New York Times last month covered statements and actions undertaken by other Republicans who were preparing to contest the elections if they lost in November. The party leaders and candidates discussed various methods for challenging the outcome, depending on how the elections were conducted and who was declared the winner.	According to 2020 Economist/YouGov Poll, 38% of both Democrats and Republicans said they would be upset if their child considered marrying someone of the opposite party. Yet more, 41% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans, would not. The majority said children should have the freedom to love whomever they want. “People are free to choose, however misinformed,” said one person. “I’m not marrying the person. My child is. It’s their life, their choice.”
The analysis in Girl Security’s previous Alternative Futures Forecast concluded that they key to preventing spontaneous violence is in the hands of the candidates. As such, they should agree prior to the elections which specific metrics and indicators they will track to determine the validity of them, and share that list with the public now, so as to hold them to it.	In 2022, NPR reported that while schools, crime, and other things were still major considerations for Americans who were moving, shared political views was another key factor. Bill Bishop, author of The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America is Tearing Us Apart, argues that Americans have been sorting themselves by politically for three decades. Political scientist Larry Sabato’s analysis showed that “super landslide” counties have jumped from 6% in 2004 to 22% in 2020, validating Bishop’s conclusion.
Girl Security’s Analysis: At best, the GOP is transparently planning to challenge the elections if he loses. At worst, supporters are prepared to use violence as part of challenging an election loss.	Girl Security’s Analysis: At best, Americans will keep their partisan politics separate from broader family and personal life. At worst, Americans will increasingly define themselves by, and link the perception of their wellbeing to, the party in power rather than being Americans.